倪福德果然早早從東京打包回Lakeland,合了老虎隊的意。在倪福德出發去東京前就有許多球迷認為他浪費了在教練團前證明自己的機會。的確,這樣一來一回真的浪費很多時間,長途跋涉後調整時差和體力也要時間。不過不妨來看一下其餘的左投競爭對手有沒有把握倪倪遠渡重洋時證明自己吧。

 

今年老虎的春訓陣營中的八位左投有Nate Robertson、Dontrelle Willis、Kyle Bloom、Bobby Seay、Jon Kibler、Macay McBride、Clay Rapada、還有我們的Ni。其中Nate Robertson和Dontrelle Willis是先發型投手。當然不是說他們不可能競爭中繼後援的位置,但是機會比較小。這兩位目前的表現也都很差,ERA都在9以上。看來老虎隊指望Dontrelle重振雄風的日子還有得等啊。

 

剩下的Kyle Bloom、Bobby Seay、Jon Kibler、Macay McBride、Clay Rapada五位競爭者之中,Kyle Bloom、Bobby Seay在倪福德春訓初登板的同一場比賽也各投一局。當天三人表現都十分出色。原本三人難分軒輊,倪倪一趟日本行下來已經出現了變化。Bloom和Seay在倪福德不在的時候各自多出賽了二場。Bloom投了2.1局,被打四安打,包括一支全壘打,責失四分。防禦率飆升到10.8。被長打率也是嚇人的0.500。Bloom多出賽完全沒有賺到,有人說有壞印象總比沒印象好。不過如果Bloom再這樣下去是威脅不到倪倪的。

 

反觀Seay就完全不同了。多出賽了二場,雖然只多投了1.2局,被打了兩支安打,但是並沒有失分。防禦率停留在完美的0。被上壘率0.364雖然比Bloom高,但是被長打率僅有0.222。有七年大聯盟經驗的Seay前年在老虎隊受到重用,成績還算不錯。但是去年表現崩盤,也是老虎隊今年急於找左投的原因。今年春訓他表現出色到老虎隊球迷不能適應的程度,頻頻問這真的是Seay嗎?雖然出賽數還很少,但是我可能知道Seay(賽亞)變成超賽亞的關鍵。他很可能練好了一顆沉球。過去7年Seay的滾飛比很少超過1,是個飛球型投手。但春訓到目前滾飛比是神奇的5.00。這個數字也造就了很低的被長打率。這種轉變應該和球路有關。

 

剩下三位Kibler、McBride、Rapada各投過2局。以去年才升上高階1A的Kibler失一分比較難看。Kibler應該是球團安排上來見習的,直接影響到倪福德的可能性本來就不高。McBride和Rapada在大聯盟分別是四年和三年,兩個人在春訓都還沒失分。McBride在勇士隊本來是防禦率低於4的投手,2007季中被交易到老虎隊後傷勢爆發,ERA爆到6.11。隔年幾乎報廢,只在3A出賽一場投了一局。今年要看他能不能東山再起。

 

剩下的春訓倪福德除了要洗去被中國隊打全壘打的陰影外,還要面對Seay、McBride、Rapada三人較激烈的卡位。待期他異軍突起給台灣球迷個驚喜。

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  • Dorasaga
  • You know, I usually don't speak crap here, because I believe in good will and good humor. But I honestly hope that you were not serious about your conclusion here.

    Why?

    - ERA means nothing

    - Had we figured out scouting report sof pitchers for Tigers' Spring Training camp?

    - We yet to know what GM Dombrowski and Manager Leyland think about this Taiwanese

    - Baseball is still very much a matter of opinions, not excluding the ones of the men in uniforms

    - Opinions can be more valuable than science sometimes, while science helps to deduce opinions
  • First of all, I didn't give any conclusions to whether or not Ni will make it to the ML this year. Nor did I make conclusions for whether Ni's absence hurts or benefits his chances. This is simply an analysis of Ni's competitors performances while Ni was in Japan.

    I wouldn't say ERA means nothing, but it isn't the whole picture. And certainly not concrete when only a few games have been played, adding that these are RP so very few innings were pitched each game. But, I looked at more than just ERAs. WHIP, OBP, SLG and career stats were considered before i wrote this.

    Because they are RP, I think ERA does matter. No manager would want to put a RP on the mound in tight game situations without knowing how many runs he might give up on average. So like you said, opinions matters. And how do the "non-stat" opinions get established? I think more than how fast they pitch or what their stuff is like, in the end it's past the game situations that's used in evaluating the effectiveness of a relief pitcher.

    So you can tolerate a starting pitcher with ERA higher than 4 and still say he is a good starting pitcher. But a good relief pitcher normally wouldn't have ERA above 3. If they are good enough to be a closer, the ERA certainly shouldn't be much higher than 2.

    Bloom had couple of tough outings and gave up extra-bases, while Seay was perfect and didn't giveup extra-base hits in all his outings. I think that makes a great difference when it comes choosing time. As for the other 3, there wasn't much stats to decide how well they did, so I evaluated they career stats. One's a rookie, the other two are veterans but with injuries or setbacks. That's pretty much sums up the whole article. I am not really sure what "conclusion" you are referencing to. Constructive dialogs are always welcome here, so please help me understand what you meant by conclusion, since I feel that I didn't really make one.

    hansioux 於 2009/03/13 01:31 回覆

  • upsisoftball
  • 我今天特地去看了一下「膝蓋」的中繼成績,
    雖然ERA還是0.00,
    可是他今天似乎投了一個IBB的樣子。

    不知道有沒有受到經典賽的影響...
  • 倪福德雖然沒有責失,但是有失一分(三壘手失誤、保送、犧牲觸擊、故意四壞、高飛犧牲)。

    反觀其它競爭者,Seay到現在出場4場,投了4.2局,表現仍然十分搶眼。沒有失分,被長打率才.200,被上壘率是.294。

    另外出賽三場投了三局的Rapada也是表現出色。三局中只被打過一支一壘安打,沒有送出保送。McBride不知道為仍只出賽兩場投兩局。如果倪福德再上場應該他也有機會上去投。Kibler我覺得是上來見習的,事實上也是如此,今天第一波下放名單中Kibler已經離開大聯盟春訓營了。

    唯一真的表現很差的還是Bloom... 多投了兩局還是一樣慘。剩下的四個對手中只有一個比較不用擔心。要真的很拼才有機會上。

    目前虎隊官網的說法是,第五先發要讓 Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Zach Miner 和 Rick Porcello 搶。如果讓兩名左投Willis和Robertson其中一人搶到的話,很另外一人有可能會推進牛棚。

    目前牛棚已經確定了四個位置 Brandon Lyon, Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay 和 Fernando Rodney。所以看來 Seay 的好表現已經保證了一個牛棚左投的位置。牛棚還能放幾個左投?如果還有一個位置的話,就變成四搶一了。

    hansioux 於 2009/03/13 01:31 回覆

  • Dorasaga
  • Hi,

    Hmm, this is turning to a long comment demanding like 2 blog posts in order to respond "lightly." I will try...

    First of all, I like your blog. I like what I'm learning here. But there are issues you confused me with.

    >>Because they are RP, I think ERA does matter. ... in the end it's past the game situations that's used in evaluating the effectiveness of a relief pitcher...

    >>So you can tolerate a starting pitcher with ERA higher than 4 and still say he is a good starting pitcher. But a good relief pitcher normally wouldn't have ERA above 3. If they are good enough to be a closer, the ERA certainly shouldn't be much higher than 2.

    No, I won't tolerate if I was a major league manager. But I would tolerate my RP ERA hitting 5 or 6 if he shows signs of improvement throughout spring training. I would also tolerate the ERA >4 if the pitcher is recovering from an injury, and he was dominating minor league batters. A short series (WBC) or warm-up days (spring) doesn't tell me much, aside from his progression. If the pitcher has increased steadily his velocity or control throughout spring, I would say he has a shot to make the 25-man roster.

    Of course, we need the career numbers for a review, like you said. And that is exactly why ERA in a short period (like WBC) doesn't matter.
  • Exactly, but like I said, I have based my analysis of Ni's competitors more on OBP and SLG and what actually happened in the games. That is why I was in no hurry to pass judgment on Rapada. By the way, Rapada replaced Ni in a scheduled outing for Ni against the Nationals. In which he managed yet again to deliver. Ni hasn't made an outing since the game he gave up 1 unearned run. And during this period the Tigers had a game almost everyday. Even today, it was Seay who got another chance to pitch. At this point am worried about Ni's chances.

    on the side note, I think there are plenty of starting pitchers from the rotation with ERA higher than 4 and still considered effective and above average. A.J. Burnett, Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Garland, and Andy Pettitte to name a few were example from last season.

    hansioux 於 2009/03/17 15:22 回覆

  • Dorasaga
  • >>That's pretty much sums up the whole article. I am not really sure what conclusion you are referencing to. Constructive dialogs are always welcome here, so please help me understand what you meant by conclusion, since I feel that I didn't really make one.

    I wonder if you need any help here. My professor once told me, it's easier to find wrongs out of another's work than creating your own work. I guess this is the situation.

    It's probably how you word the "non-conclusion" about Ni's chances to hit the roster which confused me. (and no, I'm not quoting you with parenthesis.)

    Let's see... You started the post with...
    >>不過不妨來看一下其餘的左投競爭對手有沒有把握倪倪遠渡重洋時證明自己吧。

    Go on...
    >>當然不是說他們不可能競爭中繼後援的位置,但是機會比較小。這兩位目前的表現也都很差,ERA都在9以上。

    >>不過如果Bloom再這樣下去是威脅不到倪倪的。

    Alas...
    >>剩下的春訓倪福德除了要洗去被中國隊打全壘打的陰影外,還要面對Seay、McBride、Rapada三人較激烈的卡位。待期他異軍突起給台灣球迷個驚喜。

    I probably found you overstating the importance of ERA in a short series, and weighing favorably on Ni, without going into the "other considerations" that you thought of.

    I know little about the Tigers' farm, but Bobby Seay, I've heard, was a star prospect when he's drafted. He's still highly touted, most likely a RP.

    Ni would probably be handled as a SP. I wonder if Seay really matters.

    One last thing, the Tigers roster with big league contracts look pretty full. There's still time for likes of Ni around September call-up.

    We know very little about how Ni will perform in the regular season, when teams play for the games "that really matter." I see no reason to rush Ni, or even expect that he make the roster in April.
  • I wonder what gave you the impression that I favor Ni's chances. Actually from the time I wrote the article I was worried about Ni's chances. "除了要洗去被中國隊打全壘打的陰影外,還要面對Seay、McBride、Rapada三人較激烈的卡位" isn't exactly confidence in Ni. And "待期他異軍突起" goes further to prove I don't think of Ni as the front runner in this left-handed RP race. Ni is facing an uphill battle here.

    The only person I am not worried about is Kyle Bloom. The Tigers were expecting a lot from Bloom, they gave him as many chances as Seay, but he simply can not deliver. So far, they have curbed Bloom. Will he recover by the end of ST? maybe. But Bloom is also just a non-roster invitee. I'd say his chances are thin at this point. Especially when Rapada and Seay doing so well game in and game out.

    Talking about being curbed, as the week gone by with no Ni in sight, I am beginning to wonder if they are just going to put him on the next list down to the minors. Like I said, they have brought Ni along, but passed up on him, even when he was scheduled to go out. Instead, Rapada and Seay, the two left-handed RP that had more outing than anyone, both got a chance to pitch again.

    They have already named Seay as one of the stable bull-pen. and since Seay is on the roster, he's likely to stay there even if the rest of his outings weren't as impressive as the 6 innings so far.

    I do agree Ni doesn't have to go for the bull-pen. I've mentioned that in my previous article. But the key is to have the coaches accept that and have a chance to see what Ni could do as a starter. I'd say the left-handed starter department isn't going well for the Tigers (the closer department is not going well either). It is questionable if Willis will be in the rotation on opening day. Robertson isn't getting a lot of innings either.

    I think there is an misunderstanding between us. Especially on how much I expect Ni to make it this season. However, just because I think he will not likely be on the 25 man roster, doesn't mean I don't wish him to be on that roster. I'd like to see someone to go from CPBL directly into MLB and be successful. That however doesn't blind me from what is actually happening in Lakeland. Like I said in response to another fan on the 11th, since Seay has been named by the Tigers to be in the Bull-pen, Ni's chances are getting slimmer.

    hansioux 於 2009/03/17 13:36 回覆